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Calendar

Week 1

Jan 19
Lecture 1: Class Overview
Notes / Course Overview / Slides / HW1 (due 01/24)
Jan 21
Discussion 1: Calibration
Discussion Worksheet

Week 2

Jan 24
Lecture 3: Scoring Rules
Notes / HW2 (due 01/31)
Jan 26
Lecture 4: Estimation
Notes
Jan 28
Discussion 2: Estimation
Discussion Worksheet

Week 3

Jan 31
Lecture 5: Zeroth and First Order Forecasting
Notes / Slides / HW3 (due 02/07)
Feb 2
Lecture 6: Base Rates and Reference Classes
Notes / Slides
Feb 4
Discussion 3
Discussion Worksheet

Week 4

Feb 7
Lecture 7: The “Other” Option
Notes / Slides / HW4 (due 02/14) / Data for HW4 Lab (also available in the lab Jupyter Notebook)
Feb 9
Lecture 8: Inner Game of Forecasting
Notes / Slides
Feb 11
Discussion 4
Discussion Worksheet

Week 5

Feb 14
Lecture 9: Combining Forecasts
Notes / Slides / HW5 (due 02/21)
Feb 16
Lecture 10: Common Probability Distributions
Notes / Slides
Feb 18
Discussion 5
Discussion Worksheet

Week 6

Feb 21
President’s Day
Feb 23
Lecture 11: Prioritizing Information
Notes / Slides / HW6 (due 02/28)
Feb 25
Discussion 6
Discussion Worksheet

Week 7

Feb 28
Lecture 12: Turning Considerations Into Probabilities
Notes / Slides / HW7 (due 3/7)
Mar 2
Lecture 13: Bayesian Aggregation of Evidence
Slides
Mar 4
Discussion 7
Discussion Worksheet

Week 8

Mar 7
Lecture 14: Case Study: AI Forecasting Pt. 1
Slides / HW8 (due 03/14)
Mar 9
Lecture 15: Case Study: AI Forecasting Pt. 2
Slides (same as previous)
Mar 11
Discussion 8
Discussion Worksheet

Week 9

Mar 14
Lecture 16: Statistical Street Fighting I
Notes / Slides/ HW 9 (due 03/17) / Project Proposal instructions (due 03/18)
Mar 16
Lecture 17: Statistical Street Fighting II
Notes / Slides
Mar 18
Discussion 9
Discussion worksheet

Week 10

Mar 21
Spring Recess
Mar 23
Spring Recess
Mar 25
Spring Recess

Week 11

Mar 28
Lecture 18: Cognitive Biases I
Notes / HW 10 (due 04/04)
Mar 30
Lecture 19: Cognitive Biases II
Notes (same as previous)
Apr 1
Discussion 10
Discussion Worksheet

Week 12

Apr 4
Lecture 20: Statistical Street Fighting III: Regression to the Mean and Selection of Range
Slides / HW 11 (due 04/11)
Apr 6
Lecture 21: Forecasting and Decision-Making
Apr 8
Discussion 11
Discussion Worksheet

Week 13

Apr 11
Lecture 22: Guest Lecture: Pandemic Forecasting (Juan Cambeiro)
HW 12 (due 4/18) (last homework!)
Apr 13
Lecture 23: Guest Lecture: Information Sources (Carolyn Meinel)
Slides
April 15
Discussion 12
Discussion Worksheet

Week 14

Apr 18
Lecture 24: Guest Lecture: Election Forecasting (David Shor)
Apr 20
Lecture 25: Independence Assumptions
Apr 22
Discussion 13
Discussion Worksheet

Week 14

Apr 25
Lecture 24: Predictions and Markets
Slides
Apr 27
Lecture 25: Project Presentations
Apr 29
Discussion 14: Project Presentations