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Calendar

Week 1

Jan 19
Lecture 1: Class Overview
Notes / Course Overview / Slides / HW1 (due 01/24)
Jan 21
Discussion 1: Calibration
Discussion Worksheet

Week 2

Jan 24
Lecture 3: Scoring Rules
Notes / HW2 (due 01/31)
Jan 26
Lecture 4: Estimation
Jan 28
Discussion 2

Week 3

Jan 31
Lecture 5: Zeroth and First Order Forecasting
Notes
Feb 2
Lecture 6: Inner Game of Forecasting
Feb 4
Discussion 3

Week 4

Feb 7
Lecture 7: Base Rates and Reference Classes
Notes
Feb 9
Lecture 8: The “Other” Option
Notes
Feb 11
Discussion 4

Week 5

Feb 14
Lecture 9: Combinating Forecasts
Notes
Feb 16
Lecture 10: Common Probability Distributions
Notes
Feb 18
Discussion 5

Week 6

Feb 21
Lecture 11: Prioritizing Information
Notes
Feb 23
Lecture 12: Turning Considerations Into Probabilities
Notes
Feb 25
Discussion 6

Week 7

Feb 28
Lecture 13: Statistical Street Fighting I: Motivation and Representation
Mar 2
Lecture 14: Statistical Street Fighting II: Regression to the Mean and Selection Bias
Mar 4
Discussion 7

Week 8

Mar 7
Lecture 15: Cognitive Biases I
Mar 9
Lecture 16: Cognitive Biases II
Mar 11
Discussion 8

Week 9

Mar 14
Lecture 17: Worldview Building
Mar 16
Lecture 18: Case Study: Election Forecasting
Mar 18
Discussion 9

Week 10

Mar 21
Spring Recess
Mar 23
Spring Recess
Mar 25
Spring Recess

Week 11

Mar 28
Lecture 19: Case Study: Financial Crisis
Mar 30
Lecture 20: Case Study: AI Forecasting
Apr 1
Discussion 10

Week 12

Apr 4
Lecture 21: Regimes
Apr 6
Lecture 22: Prediction Markets in the Real World
Apr 8
Discussion 11

Week 13

Apr 11
Lecture 23: Forecasting and Decision Making
Apr 13
Lecture 24: Project Presentations

Week 14

Apr 18
Project Presentations
Apr 20
Project Presentations